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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."