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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.